(Martin Widenka photo)

Speculation, foreign buyers’ taxes won’t solve B.C.’s housing crisis: economist

Expert slams the NDP government’s proposed methods to reduce demand

Trying to push down housing prices by lowering the housing demand could hurt B.C.’s economy, the B.C. Real Estate Association says.

Chief economist Cameron Muir said their models show that even a 10-per-cent rapid drop in home prices could mean a 1.5-per-cent economic downturn, 26,000 jobs lost, and 10,000 fewer housing starts.

“It could effect the economic growth of the province in terms of economic output, but also retail sales, labour market, unemployment rate, housing starts and of course also the loss in equity and homeowners which comprise 70 per cent of B.C. households,” said Muir.

“Home prices don’t fall on their own. There are ramifications to that.”

The NDP government has faced near-constant backlash since it announced a speculation tax in February. The tax would charge homeowners who don’t pay income taxes in B.C. up to two per cent of property values each year in a bid to cool the market.

READ: Rural cabins, cottages exempted from speculation tax

The foreign buyers tax – a 20-per-cent tax on property purchased in B.C.’s major urban areas by non-Canadian citizens or residents introduced by the previous Liberal government – made a lot of potential homebuyers “skittish,” he said, delaying home purchases for several months and without doing much to push down prices.

Developers see potential buyers hesitate, he said, and in turn, slow down the pace of their construction projects.

READ: ‘Not well thought out:’ Arizona family slams B.C. speculation tax

Instead, he said, the province could focus on ramping up supply because that would not only ease the pressure on prices but also provide plenty of jobs.

Muir pointed to the record-breaking 42,000 homes being built in Vancouver currently, up from a previous high of 27,000 units.

That number is mirrored across the province, he added, with many homes under construction set to be complete within the next several quarters.

Once those homes are built, house prices will flatten, Muir said.

“The prime culprit for rising prices is that it takes so long to complete a housing project … we’re talking five years or longer.”

A 2017 Fraser Institute report found that on average, it takes 10.2 months just to approve a home build in the Lower Mainland.

Most new housing starts are multi-family, Muir added, which take longer to build, even if they eventually house more people.

Although he said there’s “no silver bullet” for getting more houses built, stopping a record-breaking building season is certainly the wrong choice.

“In my mind, it’s folly to stall out the construction industry now.”


@katslepian

katya.slepian@bpdigital.ca

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Just Posted

Giesbrecht pleads not guilty in murder trial

Giesbrecht, 67, faces 1st-degree murder of Raymond Bishop, found May 2017 south of Francois Lake.

Bulkley Valley SD 54 superintendent leaving

Chris van der Mark has been superintendent with SD54 for eight years, and has hands full in Cariboo.

Council wants culture centre referendum

Library/gallery gets extra grant scrutiny for passing $10-million threshold.

B.C. chiefs show solidarity with Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs

Chiefs from around B.C. outside the Coastal GasLink pipeline route in Smithers show support.

The North Matters looks to open Bulkley Valley chapter

Group promoting resource development meets in Smithers.

VIDEO: U.S. Congress to probe whether Trump told lawyer Cohen to lie

At issue is a BuzzFeed News report that about negotiations over a Moscow real estate project

Rookie Demko backstops Canucks to 4-3 win over Sabres

Young Vancouver goalie makes 36 saves to turn away Buffalo

Charges upgraded against mother of murdered B.C. girl

Kerryann Lewis now faces first- rather than second-degree murder in the death of Aaliyah Rosa.

UPDATE: Injured firefighter in stable condition

Kelowna fire crews responded to a blaze at Pope’sGallery of BC Art & Photography on Friday

Rare ‘super blood wolf moon’ takes to the skies this Sunday

Celestial event happens only three times this century

Arrest made after historic B.C. church hit by arson

The fire at the 150-year-old Murray United Church in Merritt was considered a possible hate crime

B.C. dangerous offender in court for violating no-contact order, sends letter to victim

Wayne Belleville was shocked to see a letter addressed to him from his shooter, Ronald Teneycke

Man blames his loud car radio, sirens for crash with B.C. ambulance

Tribunal rejects bid to recoup ICBC costs after crash deemed 100-per-cent his fault

RECALL: Salmon Village maple salmon nuggets

Customers warned not to eat product due to possible Listeria contamination

Most Read