Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux waits to appear before the Commons Finance committee on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on March 10, 2020. Parliament’s spending watchdog will detail today possible costs associated with extending and changing the Canada Emergency Response Benefit. Budget officer Yves Giroux’s report scheduled to be released this morning comes on the same day that the House of Commons meets to discuss proposed changes to the COVID-19-related aid. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Tuesday that his government wanted to redo how the $2,000-a-month benefit is doled out and get more people back to work, while also cracking down on fraud. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux waits to appear before the Commons Finance committee on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on March 10, 2020. Parliament’s spending watchdog will detail today possible costs associated with extending and changing the Canada Emergency Response Benefit. Budget officer Yves Giroux’s report scheduled to be released this morning comes on the same day that the House of Commons meets to discuss proposed changes to the COVID-19-related aid. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Tuesday that his government wanted to redo how the $2,000-a-month benefit is doled out and get more people back to work, while also cracking down on fraud. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

Extending CERB for months could double $60-billion budget, PBO report suggests

Recent figures show 8.41 million people have applied for the CERB, with $43.51 billion in payments made as of June 4

Parliament’s spending watchdog says extending the Canada Emergency Response Benefit to provide more weeks of payments, and letting people earn some extra income, would cost the federal treasury an additional $64 billion.

Under one scenario the parliamentary budget officer looked at, the government would claw back 50 cents of each dollar earned over $1,000 and allow recipients to receive an additional 12 weeks of benefits.

The first cohort of CERB recipients will hit the current 16-week limit early next month.

Budget officer Yves Giroux’s report says simply extending the maximum number of weeks to 28, and extending the program through to January 2021, would cost about $57.9 billion.

The costs in Giroux’s report don’t take into account what the government has already spent on the CERB, which now has a budget of $60 billion, up from $35 billion, because more people have claimed it for longer than expected.

The most recent federal figures show 8.41 million people have applied for the CERB, with $43.51 billion in payments made as of June 4.

READ MORE: Fines, punishment for CERB ‘fraudsters’, not people who made mistakes: Trudeau

Under either scenario, Giroux estimates that letting recipients receive payments for 28 weeks, rather than the current 16-week maximum, could be an incentive for some to not go back to work as restrictions ease and businesses reopen.

The cost for that could be over $3.2 billion, the report says, but with a caveat that calculations about how recipients respond to changes “are highly uncertain and rely on strong assumptions.”

Similarly, the overall cost estimates could change based on economic conditions and the course of the pandemic itself, and how many companies use a federal wage subsidy to rehire workers and pull them back from the CERB.

The report comes as the House of Commons is set to discuss proposed changes to the COVID-19 pandemic-related aid, with proposals mirroring some of what Giroux probed as part of a request from the Opposition Conservatives.

People would be cut off if they fail to return to work when “it is reasonable to do so” and their employer has asked them to come back, or if they are able to work but decline a reasonable job offer.

Claim periods would be reduced from four to two weeks for Canadians experiencing short-term job loss, or needing to quarantine.

Many small business owners support measures to cut off CERB payment to workers who are offered their jobs back, barring health-related issues, the Canadian Federation of Independent Business says.

The organization, which represents tens of thousands of small businesses across the country is also asking for changes to the wage subsidy program to ease revenue-loss requirements and create a sliding scale with smaller subsidies for firms with smaller revenue losses due to COVID-19.

COVID-19: A look at how layoffs turned permanent in past Canadian recessions

CFIB president Dan Kelly said that whatever the Trudeau Liberals decide and the wage subsidy and CERB, they need to do it soon to provide certainty for companies as they reopen.

“While it’s too early to do away with CERB, it’s time to shift gears on the federal support programs to encourage people to rejoin the labour force,” he said in a statement.

Almost three million people remained unemployed in May, according to the latest figures from Statistics Canada, as even more decided anew to look for work, pushing the unemployment rate to an all-time high of 13.7 per cent.

Men started gaining back jobs at a faster pace than women in May, widening a gender gap in employment losses.

Women with children six and up gained back jobs at a faster rate than those with younger children, showing what experts say is a need for child care to help workers go back to their jobs.

A survey of more than 8,000 regulated child-care centres and home daycares, released Wednesday by a group of child-care groups, suggested that over one-third were uncertain they would be able to reopen with restrictions easing. Some 70 per cent also said they had laid off staff, with almost 90 per cent of centre staff applying for the CERB.

“To get child care back up and running, governments must find ways to bring employees back to the sector,” Don Giesbrecht, chief executive of the Canadian Child Care Federation, said in a statement.

“This means addressing the problem of low wages and inadequate compensation, and putting in place special funding to make sure that child care facilities are safe for both children and staff.”

The federal government has offered $14 billion to provinces to help with reopening plans, with an unknown part of that targeted towards child care.

Jordan Press, The Canadian Press


Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Want to support local journalism during the pandemic? Make a donation here.

CanadaCoronaviruseconomy

Get local stories you won't find anywhere else right to your inbox.
Sign up here

Just Posted

Dianna Plouffe, right, with Mayor Gladys Atrill in front of Town Hall following the announcement she will be the new CAO> (Facebook photo)
Director of corporate services named Smithers CAO

Dianna Plouffe replaces Alan Harris who is retiring at the end of April

Photo collage of loved ones lost to substance use and overdose. (Photo courtesy Moms Stop The Harm)
B.C. overdose deaths still rising 5 years after public health emergency declared

Moms Stop the Harm calls on B.C. to provide safe supply in response to deadly illicit drug use

Volunteer Robbie McKnight works the screening table at the Coast Mountain College COVID-19 vaccination clinic in Smithers. (Deb Meissner photo)
UPDATE Smithers clinic expands vaccine eligibility to ages 55+

Community members born in 1966 or earlier can now register and will be notified when they can book

Pembina Prince Rupert Terminal shipped its first vessel full of liquefied petroleum gas on April 9, just less than three years after breaking ground at the re-purposed pulp mill site on Watson Island.
Pembina ships first vessel of LPG out of Prince Rupert

More than $12 million spent to repurpose Watson Island for the LPG export facility

Styrofoam burning at the Woodmere Tree Nursery in Telka created billowing black smoke over Tyhee Lake and resulted in air quality advisory for Bulkley Valley. (Contributed photo)
VIDEO: Telkwa styrofoam fire air quality advisory lifted

A woodpile fire at Woodmere Tree Nursery spread to styrofoam blocks causing air quality concerns

Demonstrators at the legislature on April 14 called on the province to decriminalize drug possession and provide widespread access to regulated safe supply across B.C. (Jake Romphf/News Staff)
Rally calls for decriminalization, safe supply on 5th anniversary of overdose emergency declaration

From 2016 to the end of February, 7,072 British Columbians died due to overdose

(Government of Canada)
Liberal MP caught stark naked during House of Commons video conference

William Amos, in Quebec, appeared on the screens of his fellow members of Parliament completely naked

Cannabis bought in British Columbia (Ashley Wadhwani/Black Press Media)
Is it time to start thinking about greener ways to package cannabis?

Packaging suppliers are still figuring eco-friendly and affordable packaging options that fit the mandates of Cannabis Regulations

Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry updates B.C.’s COVID-19 situation at the B.C. legislature, Feb. 1, 2020. (B.C. government)
B.C.’s COVID-19 case count jumps to 1,168 Wednesday, nearly 400 in hospital

Now 120 coronavirus patients in intensive care, six more deaths

Moss covered branches are seen in the Avatar Old Growth Forest near Port Renfrew on Vancouver Island, B.C. Thursday, Sept. 29, 2011. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward
B.C. blockades aimed at protecting old-growth forests reveal First Nation split

Two Pacheedaht chiefs say they’re ‘concerned about the increasing polarization over forestry activities’ in the territory

Richmond RCMP Chief Superintendent Will Ng said, in March, the force received a stand-out number of seven reports of incidents that appeared to have “racial undertones.” (Phil McLachlan/Capital News)
‘Racially motivated’ incidents on the rise in B.C’s 4th largest city: police

Three incidents in Richmond are currently being invested as hate crimes, says RCMP Chief Superintendent Will Ng

Commercial trucks head south towards the Pacific Highway border crossing Wednesday (April 14, 2021). The union representing Canadian border officers wants its members to be included on the frontline priority list for the COVID-19 vaccine. (Aaron Hinks photo)
CBSA officers’ union calls for vaccine priority in B.C.

Border officers at ports including, YVR and land crossings should ‘not be left behind’

A still from the video taken of a violent arrest on May 30, 2020 in downtown Kelowna. (File)
Kelowna Mountie charged with assault for caught-on-camera violent arrest

Const. Siggy Pietrzak was filmed punching a suspected impaired driver at least 10 times during an arrest

Most Read